samedi 5 mars 2011

The euro at 1.40 dollar

   On the eve of the publication of non-farm payrolls, it was the meeting of the European Central Bank, which drew all eyes.   As expected, the Governing Council meeting ended with a monetary status quo but Jean Claude Trichet, at his traditional press conference, did not disappoint the expectations of financial markets. Indeed, the president of the ECB has clearly adopted a much more aggressive tone towards inflation, saying that the prospects of rising prices are now placed at 2.3%, slightly above the bar set by Frankfurt. Wishing to do everything possible to quickly roll back inflation, the French suggested that a monetary recovery could occur as early as April.    However, he cautioned investors, noting that raising money does not mean change in monetary policy so far. In other words, higher rates do not necessarily call another short term.    An increase of 25 percentage points would be substantially sufficient to increase the rate differential between the two sides of the Atlantic while the Fed has a policy of zero and it seems largely accommodate as suggested Tuesday before Senate Ben Bernanke.    The prospect of higher borrowing costs in the euro area has hit the nail on the currency market, pushing the euro just a few pips of 1.40 dollar. An unexpected level while many experts expected a year under the sign of the greenback.    However, nothing ensures that the European single currency will succeed in the coming days to cross this threshold strategy. Indeed, only non-farm payrolls tomorrow may eventually allow a strengthening of the euro. For now, experts expect a rise in unemployment to 9.1%. If this increase is confirmed, a downward trend towards the safe haven paradoxically encourage the U.S. dollar or the euro will benefit from investors' withdrawal against the greenback.

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